It seems that the only potentially bullish market factor today is the slow pace of corn planting in the U.S. The possibility of significant delays that might lead to fewer corn acres and reduced yields hasn’t been enough to offset either the bearish numbers in this month’s WASDE (released 10 May) or the disappointment in the U.S./China trade talks. USDA used a U.S. 2019 average corn yield of 176 bushels/acre, less than 1 bushel/acre off the record 176.6 bushels/acre set in 2017 and the 176.4 bushels/acre yield of last year. Record corn yields seem to have become the norm in recent years. The average yield was just 123.2 bushels/acre in 2012 but grew to 158.2bushels/acre the following year. The MY 2019/20 corn ending suppl...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.