High crop prices and generally tight stocks are bullish for fertilizer prices, from a demand-pull side. But fertilizer prices are also up on supply-push factors: short supply, distribution, and higher natural gas costs which are about 70 to 80 percent of nitrogen fertilizer costs.

Anhydrous ammonia, which is still the lowest cost per unit nitrogen, is seeing record prices. Input costs will be a factor in planting decisions for next year. Nitrogen costs for 2021/2022 are up about 130 percent from 2020/2021. Below is a table looking at nitrogen costs for corn; the values are the anhydrous ammonia prices the first week in November for the past four years, compared to the following year December corn futures contract based on the Iowa State...