Markets reportedly reacted today to the U.S. killing of Iranian Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani by falling in values and the price of oil rising. However, it is a classic example of a knee-jerk reaction. Middle East tensions run through the region’s history with the larger events in recent decades being wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Perhaps the most uncertain period of time was 2001 through 2004. However, during that period the relative values of major agricultural commodities remained tied to fundamental supply and demand (see table below). Thus, the market reaction to today’s news is ephemeral and far less important than next week’s WASDE report. As WPI’s Jody Lefcourt framed it, the news today was simply a prete...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.