There are a lot of uncertainties in the market and ranging from the political like the war, to the mundane such as weather. One variable front and center is fertilizer. It is both essential to crop production, and an environmental externality. The goal of reducing its use has come squarely confronted by its essentialness as prices have risen. The price of nitrogen and wheat yields are highly correlated. However, the relationship of various fertilizers and output are highly variable over time. This is due to improvements in uptake efficiency, plus weather and soil variability. The complexities of its use and efficaciousness should give pause to any meat handed policy approach toward regulating it.  ...