Overnight trading saw corn and soybeans firmer on continuation of yesterday’s post-WASDE rally, while bulls were firmly in control during the day session. The trade is increasingly suspicious of USDA’s numbers and the use of satellite imagery, and other data is starting to overrule official estimates. The biggest present risk to the U.S. corn and soybean balance sheets is acreage, which most are betting will be well below the July WASDE estimates. Vegetation greenness maps show less crop development than normal for this time of year, but whether this is due to delayed crop growth or fallow land remains to be seen. Funds, apparently, believe there is more unplanted land than USDA’s figures suggest.

A former colleague of...