The November WASDE offered mixed influences for the major ag markets with USDA making surprise cuts to the U.S. corn and soybean crops and ending stocks, which rallied markets on Friday. The report also, however, cast doubts on the demand-side outlook for both crops and wheat, and that is what the CBOT chose to focus on in Monday’s trade. Between the demand-side concerns and a surging U.S. dollar, CBOT corn, soybeans, and wheat all settled lower with funds engaging in generally light selling as they contemplate what to do with markets sitting near key technical points. After the recent run-up in futures – especially corn – prices are now looking a little overextended relative to the fundamentals, especially as the WASDE’s demand outlook lea...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.