Key Market Insights

Markets aren’t trading fundamentals right now—they’re pricing risk. The Middle East remains the center of gravity, and the latest developments point to a situation that is not escalating—but not resolving either. That’s a difficult environment for markets to gain conviction. The U.S. has indefinitely extended its ceasefire with Iran, but peace talks remain on hold. At the same time, the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively restricted, with reports of ships coming under fire and Iranian tankers going dark to bypass enforcement. Add in rising tensions with China after the U.S. flagged a “gift” shipment to Iran, and it’s clear this situation is far from stable—even if a...