USDA recently released its annual long-term projections for major crops, and those for soybeans can be justifiably challenged for several reasons. USDA’s Long-Term Soybean Yield Projections Too Conservative USDA recently released its annual long-term projections for major crops, including soybeans. These are largely based on past trends and represent a consensus of the analysts involved. While they will mostly be inaccurate because of unforeseen events (macroeconomic, weather, etc.), there is still some value in that they provide a view of what the future may hold.Projections that can be justifiably challenged are those for U.S. average soybean yields for the next 10 years, which USDA is forecasting will be below the record set in 2016. I...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.