The Purdue University/CME Group’s Ag Economy Barometer survey of farmers in March showed their economic sentiment dropping 47 points (28 percent), the largest one-month fall ever in the five-year old index. Farmers went through a two-year trade war that saw their exports to their largest market, China, drop but they maintained a positive viewpoint. The COVID-19 crisis has farmers fearful, but should they be? The U.S. and global economies are going into a recession of a yet unknown depth and duration. However, the impact on farm income is unclear. During the eight years out of the last 60 in which the U.S. economy had negative GDP growth, the net cash income earned by farmers fell in half of those years but rose in the other half. The...
Communicating importance of value-added products
Facing increasing pressure to quantify the value of export promotion efforts to investors, a U.S. industry organization retained WPI to develop a quantitative model that better communicated the importance of exports. The resulting model concluded that value-added meat exports contributed $0.45 cents per bushel to the price of corn, increasing support for that sector’s financial support of WPI’s client. In addition to serving the red meat industry with this type of analysis, WPI has generated similar deliverables for the U.S. soybean and poultry/egg industries.
Key Market Insights The broad market is locked in on this week’s Trump-Xi meeting in Beijing, but this is no longer just a trade summit. Increasingly, the meeting is becoming tied directly to Iran, energy security, and the growing global economic fallout from disruptions through the Strai...