The Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership entered into force in 2019 without the U.S. as a member. Although four years of trade data plus forecasting for an additional year do not provide sufficient confidence in any conclusions about CPTPP’s impact, and especially the U.S. absence from the agreement, there is a pattern. Australia’s overall primary agricultural exports have increased substantially since the agreement went into force, and while not by a large measure, Canada’s exports of the same commodities have increased more than that of the U.S. This analysis does not consider important impacts, such as each country’s competitiveness in specific commodities with or without better terms of trade...