USDA's higher forecasts for U.S. soy yields and production noted in yesterday's report clearly sent shock waves through the market as they were much above average analyst estimates. There were also a number of changes to estimates related to the rest of the world.USDA's higher forecasts for U.S. soy yields and production noted in yesterday's report clearly sent shock waves through the market as they were much above average analyst estimates. The forecast for 2015 U.S. soybean production of 3.916 billion bushels (105.73 MMT) was almost 200 million bushels above the average estimates of analysts and traders surveyed by Dow Jones. It was also higher than any of the private sector analysts' individual estimates included in that survey. Such a l...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.