USDA released its May WASDE Tuesday. The May WASDE is always interesting since it includes USDA’s updated projections on U.S. and world supplies and demand for grains and the soy complex for the following new crop cycle as well as revised estimates for the current one. Obviously, it is very early to be projecting supply/demand estimates for the new crop year, 2020/21 in this case. The only crop for which serious data-based estimates can be made is Northern Hemisphere winter wheat. Most spring planted crops have just been planted or are now being planted, and planting of most new Southern Hemisphere crops is months away. This is why USDA likes to refer to its May new crop numbers as projections rather than estimates. Nevertheless, for...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.