The Chinese government announced last year a 10-percent ethanol blend mandate effective in 2020. The move brought encouragement to corn and ethanol makers elsewhere in the world since China’s huge corn stocks keep global prices depressed. However, now Wu Tianlong of the quasi-governmental Rural Economy Research Center says corn stocks have fallen so low that there isn’t the corn to meet the mandate and so it will be adjusted. Wu says that state stockpiles of corn have fallen to 56 MMT over the past two years, a 72 percent reduction from the 200 MMT in 2017. However, that does not account for China’s actual total supply and USDA’s research only finds a 7.5 percent reduction in corn carryover stocks. Moreo...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.