Friday’s CFTC report showed managed money traders continuing to oscillate between slightly bullish and slightly bearish thinking. The past several weeks have featured modest changes in the net ag position (the sum of funds’ holdings across corn, the soy complex, all three classes of wheat futures, and the three livestock contracts) with one week’s development being usually offset the next week. The whipsaw trend was true again this week as funds cut 45 percent (43,000) contracts off the net short they expanded over the prior two weeks. The move signals that funds are unconvinced that a major move will develop across the ag space, which should signal more sideways trade going forward. Through last Tuesday’s CFTC...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.