Weather reduced production coupled with increased demand have whittled down global surplus grain stocks, but the changes have not been uniform. China is the largest holder of surplus wheat and corn stocks, and Beijing has reduced its corn surplus by 11 percent and the wheat overhang by 6 percent. Those are small cuts but from a large base. Meanwhile, the EU has reduced wheat carryover by over 50 percent from their peak. However, in terms of volume, no country has reduced its wheat and corn stocks from their peak as much as the U.S. – a collective reduction of over 42 MMT. There are contrarians. For example, South Africa’s modest corn surplus has been held steady while India’s wheat ending stocks are up 12.5 percent...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.