Economists and central bankers gathering this past weekend at the American Economists Association found reasons to be optimistic. The U.S. economy is slowing but odds of a recession are low. Low interest rates and a solid jobs market offset a slowdown in manufacturing. The IMF predicts global economic growth to increase in 2020 and again in 2021, leg by improvements in many emerging markets. In reaction to the growth, raw material prices have been rising and the dollar is at its lowest level since March, a factor that further boosts commodity consumption. GDP growth is much more volatile than major agricultural commodity ending stocks, but there is nonetheless a correlation. GDP growth spurs consumption. If geopolitical volatility does not...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.