In the world of global grain trading, commodities are deemed fungible, or mutually interchangeable. However, fungibility is a relative term since grain prices can vary geographically for various reasons including transportation costs, local supply/demand differences, small qualitative differences, information gaps, etc. The following example of wheat prices this year is illustrative. In the graphs below, spot wheat prices in the Black Sea region, including Ukraine, experienced an “M” shaped volatility early this calendar year followed by a sharp spike upwards in the fall. However, spot wheat prices in Argentina did not reflect the earlier volatility and instead made a steady year-long, less steep climb toward today’s curr...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.