Markets continue to reel from the August WASDE with the trade trying to decide if USDA’s latest figures are wrong, right, or somewhere in between. One could make the case either way with its estimates being the best available at a given time but also subject to the fact that the world (and markets) are constantly changing. While USDA’s job is to give its most accurate supply/demand forecasts for the entire world at a specific point, the futures market’s job (among other things) is to estimate the future price for a commodity. To a certain extent, it doesn’t matter whether USDA’s forecasts are right or wrong if cash and futures markets can function freely and converge during the delivery period. The WASDE should...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.