Weekend weather model runs continued to show beneficial rains for the Midwest and Plains over the next two weeks with more moderate temperatures. The forecast comes just as the corn crop finishes pollinating and enters peak kernel fill while the soybean crop will enter its key yield-defining period. The forecasts, if correct, show a strong opportunity for both corn and soybean yields to recover, though damage has already been done. The new weather outlook, however, was more than enough to put funds in a selling mood with the need for “weather risk” premia in futures now essentially gone. This, combined with weak technical performance to end last week’s trade, sent CBOT futures sharply lower with soybeans leading the downwa...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.