After their brief reaction to last week’s September WASDE, grain and soy futures markets seem to once again be mired in their old trading ranges. There is little enthusiasm for pushing futures prices in either direction. Chicago wheat futures did push above their 50-day moving average yesterday, but they have retreated again today. Markets currently lack much of a story, either bullish or bearish, and traders are reluctant to establish new positions. They know that there are a significant number and variety of factors each of which could influence futures market price action. However, predicting whether or not they will do so is presently a guessing game, but apparently not a trading game. Markets have assumed a “wait and see&r...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.