USDA announced this week that it will make some changes (noted below) to the monthly WASDE (supply and demand estimates) starting with the May report. While not huge, these modifications will likely add clarity and should have been implemented long ago. They will not affect the actual numbers but only how they are portrayed. - The row labels for world wheat, coarse grains, corn, rice and cotton will now include the line “world less China.” This is an important change. WPI and other analysts have pointed out for several years the significance of China’s supplies to world ending supplies for crops, especially corn and wheat. It currently holds more than 50 percent of the world wheat ending supplies, 74 percent of the world&...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.