USDA’s July 2025 outlook for U.S. wheat is for a 1 bushel per acre increase in average yield to 52.6 bushels per acre. The projection is for U.S. wheat production to increase 8 million bushels to 1,929 million bushels. However, the estimate for U.S. wheat exports is raised by 25 million bushels to 850 million on a strong early pace of sales and shipments. The culmination of all changes is that 2025/26 ending stocks are lowered 8 million bushels to 890 million – but that is up 5 percent from last year. The projected 2025/26 seasonal average farm price is unchanged at $5.40 per bushel. The estimate for 2025/26 global wheat stocks is a decline by 1.2 million tons to 261.5 million, primarily due to reductions in Canada and the EU.&n...
From WPI Consulting
Forecasting developments in production agriculture
On behalf of a private U.S. agricultural technology provider, WPI’s team generated an econometric model to forecast the movement of concentrated corn production north and west from the traditional U.S. Corn Belt. WPI’s model has subsequently provided quantitative support to a multi-million-dollar investment into short-season corn variety development. WPI’s methodology included a series of interviews with regional grain elevators and seed consultants. Emphasizing outreach and communication with stakeholders who possess intimate sectoral knowledge – on-the-ground insights – is a regular component of WPI’s methodologies, made possible by WPI’s ever-growing network of industry contacts.