WASDE Soybeans - May 2026
USDA’s initial outlook for 2026/27 U.S. soybeans is that increased production will be offset by strong demand for soybean oil as a biofuel. The soybean oil price is forecast at 70 cents per pound – up about 7 cents. Active crushing is expected to reduce U.S. soybean ending stocks to...
WASDE Corn - May 2026
USDA’s initial outlook for 2026/27 corn is that the U.S. remains the largest global exporter. The season-average farm price is projected to increase to $4.40 per bushel, up 25 cents. World corn imports are forecast to rise 1 percent...
WASDE Wheat - May 2026
USDA’s initial outlook for 2026/27 U.S. wheat is for a significant reduction in Hard Red Winter wheat: The expectation is for an 18 percent decline in ending stocks and a $1.50-bushel increase in the seasonal average farm price to $6.50 per bushel. Total global wheat production is e...
Policy Roundup
A federal appeals court paused a USITC ruling against President Trump’s use of Section 122 to impose 10-percent global tariffs. A bipartisan group of 80 House members asked USTR to investigate specialty crop imports from Mexico for unfair trade practices. India notified the WT...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 13 May)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “...
Market Commentary: USDA Slashes Wheat Outlook, Soy Balance Sheet Heavily Yield-Dependent
What You Need to Know Today: Iran says its definition of the Strait of Hormuz is now a “vast operation area” that stretches from Jask to Siri Island. The White House said President Trump did not sign a suspension of the TRQs on beef imports but is “finalizing potential...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
U.S. to Temporarily Suspend TRQs on Over-Quota Tariffs on Beef
The Trump Administration is planning a suspension of tariff rate quotas (TRQs) on beef from all exporters for 200 days as a means to address high beef prices in the U.S. U.S. cattle and beef prices have increased based on exceptionally strong consumer demand, the smallest U.S. cattle herd in 75...
DOJ USDA Give Update on Antitrust Investigation into Beef Packing
At a joint press conference last week between the Department of Justice and USDA, Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche stated that he and Rollins were present to “... talk about our progress here at the Justice Department to hold meat packers accountable.” The structure of the beef...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
CORN Argentina’s corn harvest remains practically paralyzed, with weekly progress of less than 2 percent, in sharp contrast to soybeans, which advanced 16 percentage points. Rainfall across much of the agricultural region, with accumulations exceeding 100 mm and strong winds in southeaste...
Market Commentary: Equities Easily Outperform Ags
What You Need to Know Today Ag markets have placed bets on new soybean demand from China after next week’s Xi-Trump meeting. While the media predicts no major deals or agreements, Beijing sees Trump as transactional so it will “buy” some stability, and soybeans are relatively...
Transportation Perspectives - 7 May
WPI has officially launched Transportation Perspectives as a standalone weekly report separate from our Ag Perspectives articles and analysis. Current Ag Perspectives subscribers will have gratis access to the report through 16 April 2026. Please email us or subscribe o...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
CORN Argentina In Argentina, after several weeks of intense and frequent rainfall, weather conditions have improved, with clear days, dry cold, and wind supporting both soil and grain drying. Harvest activity has resumed; however, producers continue to prioritize soybeans, limiting progress in...
U.S. and Global Soy Crush Forecasts
WPI recently completed an expansion of our methodology for estimating and forecasting U.S. and global soybean crushing margins. The new approach incorporates the energy market’s expanding influence on the oilseed sector and the structural changes in global biofuel demand. This report is i...
Transportation Perspectives - 30 April
WPI has officially launched Transportation Perspectives as a standalone weekly report separate from our Ag Perspectives articles and analysis. Current Ag Perspectives subscribers will have gratis access to the report through 16 April 2026. Please email us or subscr...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Corn Intermittent rains of varying intensity continue to disrupt Argentina’s corn harvest across key agricultural regions. Dry windows have not been sufficient to improve field conditions or reduce grain moisture, keeping progress slow and prompting many producers to prioritize...
E15: What Does It Mean?
Previous administrations—including that of President Donald Trump—have promoted domestic consumption of corn and soybeans through expanded biofuel mandates and subsidies. The original framework for this policy was the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, which required the...
Transportation Perspectives - 23 April
WPI has officially launched Transportation Perspectives as a standalone weekly report separate from our Ag Perspectives articles and analysis. Current Ag Perspectives subscribers will have gratis access to the report through 16 April 2026. Please email us or subscr...
Aid versus Trade; Idealism versus Competition; AI and Ag; Untethered Presidency
Aid versus Trade Development assistance has a long and unsatisfying history. The causes of poverty were long ago identified as poor governance and the lack of rule of law. But the UN could not criticize the national leaders that form its membership, and so for decades development assistance has...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Corn Rains continued across Argentina’s core agricultural regions, with additional heavy accumulations keeping rural roads largely impassable and further slowing the corn harvest. Harvest progress remains limited at approximately 3 percent per week. At the same time, farmers are...
Transportation Perspectives - 16 April
WPI has officially launched Transportation Perspectives as a standalone weekly report separate from our Ag Perspectives articles and analysis. Current Ag Perspectives subscribers will have gratis access to the report through 16 April 2026. Please email us or subscr...
War Impacts; Taxes and Tariffs
War Impacts May soybeans are now within a penny of their value two weeks ago, and May corn is back up to within half a percent of its price at that time. The S&P closed above 7,000 for the first time, and the Nasdaq hit a record high. The cost of gasoline is about 15 percent higher th...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
CORN With a rainy start to April and excess moisture across much of Argentina’s agricultural region, the corn harvest has slowed, advancing just 2 percentage points over the past week to reach 21 percent of the total area. Rainfall during the second and third dekads of March was significa...
Transportation Perspectives - 10 April
WPI has officially launched Transportation Perspectives as a standalone weekly report separate from our Ag Perspectives articles and analysis. Current Ag Perspectives subscribers will have gratis access to the report through 16 April 2026. Please email us or subscribe online after this date to...
Sugar Supply and Demand Situation
Mexico’s 2025/26 sugar production is estimated to be 5.024 million MT, reflecting about a 6 percent increase from 4.7 million MT after the past two years of weather-affected output, including both persistent drought and ill-timed rains. Nonetheless, production remains near the low end com...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continued to advance nationwide, gaining 3.8 percentage points on the week to reach 19 percent of planted area. Fieldwork maintained a solid pace across most of the agricultural region, with the national average yield currently estimated at 8.53 MT/...
Prospective Planting and Quarterly Stocks Reports Preview
The 2026 USDA Prospective Plantings Report is scheduled for release tomorrow. The report surveys farmer planting intentions for major crops, including corn, soybeans, and wheat. It also asks about 2025 planted and prevent-plant acres. This report gives the first real snapshot of what planted ac...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continues to advance at the national level. After a weekly gain of 2.2 percentage points, harvest has reached 15.2 percent of the suitable area. Although recent rainfall has partially limited fieldwork, it has not had a significant impact on overall...
War in Iran Taking Toll on Meat Exports Globally and U.S. Agriculture
The war in Iran is taking a toll on meat exports as well as fuel and fertilizer. As noted in a letter to the Administration, “Maritime freight disruptions from the ongoing conflict in Iran pose significant consequences to food security here at home and around the world.” This comes...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
CORN Argentina’s corn harvest continues to move forward and has now reached 13 percent of planted area, with fieldwork still concentrated in the North Core. Progress there remains steady, and yields are averaging 9.82 MT/ha. Harvest is also beginning to pick up in the South Core, where ea...
Soy Product Pricing and Crush Margins Amid Energy Uncertainty
Volatility has been the key word for commodity markets lately, especially the energy complex and anything loosely tied to it. The effective derivatives of the energy complex include, through the linkages of biodiesel, soyoil, and soybeans, and these markets have seen incredible rallies this yea...
Transportation Perspectives - 19 March
As you probably guessed, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to drive market sentiment for energy markets and tanker vessel rates. While there have been several developments in the region this week, the big picture factors are the same: the Strait of Hormuz is all but sealed to ve...
Administration Takes Aim at Fertilizer Prices
The war in Iran is impacting not only crude oil prices but also fertilizer prices. It is a supply issue, and thus the Treasury Department has announced new waivers for Venezuela to provide price relief and reduce the threat of shortages. It is not clear, however, whether this will be enough to...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn After a week-on-week advance of 3.6 percentage points, the corn harvest reached 7.2 percent of the national area, with fieldwork concentrated mainly in Núcleo Norte and the east-central area of Entre Ríos, where yields are averaging 9.57 MT/ha and 6.52 MT/ha, respectively. Ea...
USTR Announces Multiple Section 301 Investigations
United States Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer on Wednesday announced the initiation of investigations regarding the “acts, policies, and practices” of various countries under Section 301(b) of the Trade Act of 1974 relating to structural excess capacity and production in...
Oilseed Highlights – Cargill vs. China; Biodiesel Margins Surge
Cargill Suspends Soybean Exports to China Cargill has stopped buying soybeans from Brazilian farmers following new regulatory and sanitary/phytosanitary requirements in the country. The Brazilian government’s recent adoption of stricter sanitary evaluations of soybeans destined for China...
Transportation Perspectives - 12 March
The conflict in the Middle East continues to dominate developments in energy markets and crude oil or natural gas tanker vessels, but as time passes the conflict’s relatively minor impacts on the dry bulk and container sector are becoming clearer. After a short-lived jump, dry bulk freigh...
WASDE Soybeans - Mar 2026
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans had increased imports and crush, but ending stocks remained unchanged from last month. The average annual soybean price is projected unchanged at $10.20 per bushel. The soybean meal price is increased by $5 per short ton to $300. The soybean...
WASDE Corn - Mar 2026
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged from last month. Global corn ending stocks increased by 3.8 million metric tons to 292.8 million. The season-average corn price received by U.S. producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel...
WASDE Wheat - Mar 2026
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat supply and use categories are unchanged from last month. Global supplies increased modestly by 0.2 million tons to 1,101.8 million and global ending stocks remain at a 5-year high. The result is that the average U.S. farm price is adjusted up modestly...
Economic Outlook for 2026
The January jobs report surprised to the upside, coming in at 172,000 new jobs, well above the consensus expectation of 68,000. However, the February report showed jobs falling by 86,000, far off the consensus expectation of a gain of 60,000. This loss was driven by education, leisure and hospi...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Process Standards as NTBs; Nazi Food
Process Standards as NTBs California’s Prop 12, which a House Agriculture Committee-passed farm bill is supposed to override, restricts the sale of pork and eggs in the state if not produced according to its restrictive standards. Such processing restrictions have long been used as nontar...
Iran War Hits Fertilizer Supply and Disrupts SMP Trade
Today the war in Iran has hit its 10th day. Iranian forces have sustained their retaliatory strikes on US military assets and other key infrastructure in Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. The latest Iranian attacks on Bahrain have damaged a water desalination plant. Further, more than a...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn The corn harvest is beginning to gain momentum in Argentina. So far, 7 percent of the area has been harvested, with the core corn region already reaching 10 percent. Yields remain heterogeneous. Some areas are performing well above average, while others are showing the impact of late-seaso...
Middle East Grain Trade Trends
Somewhat lost in the current discussion over the impacts of the conflict in Iran and the Persian Gulf is the impact on grain trade. The region is not usually at the top of grain market analysts’ thinking when it comes to major demand centers, yet it accounts for significant global grain c...
Transportation Perspectives - 5 March
As you might guess, it is all about the conflict in the Middle East this week when discussing anything connected to energy or freight markets. Rate estimates, fuel costs, and insurance premiums (if available) have all skyrocketed since the U.S. attacked Iran and Iran attacked 15 of its neighbor...
RVO Math Still Missing Some Key Factors, Affecting Planting Decisions?
The market is still waiting for the 2026-2027 required volume obligation (RVO) to be announced. The expectation is that it will come by the end of this month; the proposed rule was issued in June 2025, referred to as the “Set 2” rule because there are several proposals that are re-s...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT As February draws to a close, wheat exports during the first quarter of the marketing year (December–February) are approaching 10 MMT, compared with a five-year average of 5 MMT. Argentina’s ample wheat supply continues to weigh on both global and domestic prices. The country...
Transportation and Export Report - 26 February
The start of 2026 has been the exact opposite of what dry bulk markets and traders expected at the end of 2025. Typically, the Lunar New Year and post-holiday demand lulls mean that Q1 freight rates are often the weakest of the year. This year, however, rates rallied sharply on unexpected deman...
U.S. Soy & Product Export Trends
With soybean and soy product exports frequently in the headlines amid the ongoing tariff and policy shifts from Washington, examining export trends is increasingly important. Thursday’s updated Export Sales report from the USDA offered some interesting statistics for these markets, and WP...
Tariff Confusion Fun; Practical Judgements and Threats to Food; Glypho Confusion; Food Inflation
Tariff Confusion Fun Reactions to the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling that general use of tariffs is not within the President’s authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) have been wildly diverse. Mass media headlines initially celebrated the “smack do...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Rains finally arrived across much of Argentina’s agricultural region, halting the crop deterioration seen in recent weeks. The core corn and soybean region benefited most, with some areas receiving up to 100 mm. However, localized damage from excess moisture, wind and hail affected a...
IEEPA Tariffs Struck Down, Outlook for Livestock and Poultry
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Outlook Forum is taking place this week, covering key agricultural topics, unveiling the 10-year long-term baseline forecast, and providing commodity outlook updates. Further, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the International Emergency E...
Thoughts on USDA Ag Outlook Numbers
The USDA’s annual Agricultural Outlook Forum (AOF) featured the agency’s first look at the 2026/27 balance sheet for the major U.S. crops and livestock products. For corn, wheat, and soybeans, this year’s numbers were in line with expectations and did not spark much reaction f...
Transportation and Export Report - 19 February
Dry bulk ocean freight markets are once again seeing diverging trends across the Atlantic and Pacific basins. Key to this divergence is the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, which started last weekend and will last through 3 March. That is putting much of Asia on hold for trading and vessel inqui...
WASDE Soybeans - May 2026
USDA’s initial outlook for 2026/27 U.S. soybeans is that increased production will be offset by strong demand for soybean oil as a biofuel. The soybean oil price is forecast at 70 cents per pound – up about 7 cents. Active crushing is expected to reduce U.S. soybean ending stocks to...
WASDE Corn - May 2026
USDA’s initial outlook for 2026/27 corn is that the U.S. remains the largest global exporter. The season-average farm price is projected to increase to $4.40 per bushel, up 25 cents. World corn imports are forecast to rise 1 percent...
WASDE Wheat - May 2026
USDA’s initial outlook for 2026/27 U.S. wheat is for a significant reduction in Hard Red Winter wheat: The expectation is for an 18 percent decline in ending stocks and a $1.50-bushel increase in the seasonal average farm price to $6.50 per bushel. Total global wheat production is e...
Policy Roundup
A federal appeals court paused a USITC ruling against President Trump’s use of Section 122 to impose 10-percent global tariffs. A bipartisan group of 80 House members asked USTR to investigate specialty crop imports from Mexico for unfair trade practices. India notified the WT...
FOB Prices and Freight Rates App (Updated 13 May)
WPI Grain Prices and Freight Rate App Note: you can also visit the app directly by clicking here. Supplemental Information The section below offers a concise view of the options available in the current version of the WPI FOB Price and Freight Rate app, along with a short “...
Market Commentary: USDA Slashes Wheat Outlook, Soy Balance Sheet Heavily Yield-Dependent
What You Need to Know Today: Iran says its definition of the Strait of Hormuz is now a “vast operation area” that stretches from Jask to Siri Island. The White House said President Trump did not sign a suspension of the TRQs on beef imports but is “finalizing potential...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
U.S. to Temporarily Suspend TRQs on Over-Quota Tariffs on Beef
The Trump Administration is planning a suspension of tariff rate quotas (TRQs) on beef from all exporters for 200 days as a means to address high beef prices in the U.S. U.S. cattle and beef prices have increased based on exceptionally strong consumer demand, the smallest U.S. cattle herd in 75...
DOJ USDA Give Update on Antitrust Investigation into Beef Packing
At a joint press conference last week between the Department of Justice and USDA, Acting Attorney General Todd Blanche stated that he and Rollins were present to “... talk about our progress here at the Justice Department to hold meat packers accountable.” The structure of the beef...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
CORN Argentina’s corn harvest remains practically paralyzed, with weekly progress of less than 2 percent, in sharp contrast to soybeans, which advanced 16 percentage points. Rainfall across much of the agricultural region, with accumulations exceeding 100 mm and strong winds in southeaste...
Market Commentary: Equities Easily Outperform Ags
What You Need to Know Today Ag markets have placed bets on new soybean demand from China after next week’s Xi-Trump meeting. While the media predicts no major deals or agreements, Beijing sees Trump as transactional so it will “buy” some stability, and soybeans are relatively...
Transportation Perspectives - 7 May
WPI has officially launched Transportation Perspectives as a standalone weekly report separate from our Ag Perspectives articles and analysis. Current Ag Perspectives subscribers will have gratis access to the report through 16 April 2026. Please email us or subscribe o...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
CORN Argentina In Argentina, after several weeks of intense and frequent rainfall, weather conditions have improved, with clear days, dry cold, and wind supporting both soil and grain drying. Harvest activity has resumed; however, producers continue to prioritize soybeans, limiting progress in...
U.S. and Global Soy Crush Forecasts
WPI recently completed an expansion of our methodology for estimating and forecasting U.S. and global soybean crushing margins. The new approach incorporates the energy market’s expanding influence on the oilseed sector and the structural changes in global biofuel demand. This report is i...
Transportation Perspectives - 30 April
WPI has officially launched Transportation Perspectives as a standalone weekly report separate from our Ag Perspectives articles and analysis. Current Ag Perspectives subscribers will have gratis access to the report through 16 April 2026. Please email us or subscr...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Corn Intermittent rains of varying intensity continue to disrupt Argentina’s corn harvest across key agricultural regions. Dry windows have not been sufficient to improve field conditions or reduce grain moisture, keeping progress slow and prompting many producers to prioritize...
E15: What Does It Mean?
Previous administrations—including that of President Donald Trump—have promoted domestic consumption of corn and soybeans through expanded biofuel mandates and subsidies. The original framework for this policy was the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007, which required the...
Transportation Perspectives - 23 April
WPI has officially launched Transportation Perspectives as a standalone weekly report separate from our Ag Perspectives articles and analysis. Current Ag Perspectives subscribers will have gratis access to the report through 16 April 2026. Please email us or subscr...
Aid versus Trade; Idealism versus Competition; AI and Ag; Untethered Presidency
Aid versus Trade Development assistance has a long and unsatisfying history. The causes of poverty were long ago identified as poor governance and the lack of rule of law. But the UN could not criticize the national leaders that form its membership, and so for decades development assistance has...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Corn Rains continued across Argentina’s core agricultural regions, with additional heavy accumulations keeping rural roads largely impassable and further slowing the corn harvest. Harvest progress remains limited at approximately 3 percent per week. At the same time, farmers are...
Transportation Perspectives - 16 April
WPI has officially launched Transportation Perspectives as a standalone weekly report separate from our Ag Perspectives articles and analysis. Current Ag Perspectives subscribers will have gratis access to the report through 16 April 2026. Please email us or subscr...
War Impacts; Taxes and Tariffs
War Impacts May soybeans are now within a penny of their value two weeks ago, and May corn is back up to within half a percent of its price at that time. The S&P closed above 7,000 for the first time, and the Nasdaq hit a record high. The cost of gasoline is about 15 percent higher th...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
CORN With a rainy start to April and excess moisture across much of Argentina’s agricultural region, the corn harvest has slowed, advancing just 2 percentage points over the past week to reach 21 percent of the total area. Rainfall during the second and third dekads of March was significa...
Transportation Perspectives - 10 April
WPI has officially launched Transportation Perspectives as a standalone weekly report separate from our Ag Perspectives articles and analysis. Current Ag Perspectives subscribers will have gratis access to the report through 16 April 2026. Please email us or subscribe online after this date to...
Sugar Supply and Demand Situation
Mexico’s 2025/26 sugar production is estimated to be 5.024 million MT, reflecting about a 6 percent increase from 4.7 million MT after the past two years of weather-affected output, including both persistent drought and ill-timed rains. Nonetheless, production remains near the low end com...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continued to advance nationwide, gaining 3.8 percentage points on the week to reach 19 percent of planted area. Fieldwork maintained a solid pace across most of the agricultural region, with the national average yield currently estimated at 8.53 MT/...
Prospective Planting and Quarterly Stocks Reports Preview
The 2026 USDA Prospective Plantings Report is scheduled for release tomorrow. The report surveys farmer planting intentions for major crops, including corn, soybeans, and wheat. It also asks about 2025 planted and prevent-plant acres. This report gives the first real snapshot of what planted ac...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Argentina Corn Argentina’s corn harvest continues to advance at the national level. After a weekly gain of 2.2 percentage points, harvest has reached 15.2 percent of the suitable area. Although recent rainfall has partially limited fieldwork, it has not had a significant impact on overall...
War in Iran Taking Toll on Meat Exports Globally and U.S. Agriculture
The war in Iran is taking a toll on meat exports as well as fuel and fertilizer. As noted in a letter to the Administration, “Maritime freight disruptions from the ongoing conflict in Iran pose significant consequences to food security here at home and around the world.” This comes...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
CORN Argentina’s corn harvest continues to move forward and has now reached 13 percent of planted area, with fieldwork still concentrated in the North Core. Progress there remains steady, and yields are averaging 9.82 MT/ha. Harvest is also beginning to pick up in the South Core, where ea...
Soy Product Pricing and Crush Margins Amid Energy Uncertainty
Volatility has been the key word for commodity markets lately, especially the energy complex and anything loosely tied to it. The effective derivatives of the energy complex include, through the linkages of biodiesel, soyoil, and soybeans, and these markets have seen incredible rallies this yea...
Transportation Perspectives - 19 March
As you probably guessed, the ongoing conflict in the Middle East continues to drive market sentiment for energy markets and tanker vessel rates. While there have been several developments in the region this week, the big picture factors are the same: the Strait of Hormuz is all but sealed to ve...
Administration Takes Aim at Fertilizer Prices
The war in Iran is impacting not only crude oil prices but also fertilizer prices. It is a supply issue, and thus the Treasury Department has announced new waivers for Venezuela to provide price relief and reduce the threat of shortages. It is not clear, however, whether this will be enough to...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn After a week-on-week advance of 3.6 percentage points, the corn harvest reached 7.2 percent of the national area, with fieldwork concentrated mainly in Núcleo Norte and the east-central area of Entre Ríos, where yields are averaging 9.57 MT/ha and 6.52 MT/ha, respectively. Ea...
USTR Announces Multiple Section 301 Investigations
United States Trade Representative (USTR) Jamieson Greer on Wednesday announced the initiation of investigations regarding the “acts, policies, and practices” of various countries under Section 301(b) of the Trade Act of 1974 relating to structural excess capacity and production in...
Oilseed Highlights – Cargill vs. China; Biodiesel Margins Surge
Cargill Suspends Soybean Exports to China Cargill has stopped buying soybeans from Brazilian farmers following new regulatory and sanitary/phytosanitary requirements in the country. The Brazilian government’s recent adoption of stricter sanitary evaluations of soybeans destined for China...
Transportation Perspectives - 12 March
The conflict in the Middle East continues to dominate developments in energy markets and crude oil or natural gas tanker vessels, but as time passes the conflict’s relatively minor impacts on the dry bulk and container sector are becoming clearer. After a short-lived jump, dry bulk freigh...
WASDE Soybeans - Mar 2026
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. soybeans had increased imports and crush, but ending stocks remained unchanged from last month. The average annual soybean price is projected unchanged at $10.20 per bushel. The soybean meal price is increased by $5 per short ton to $300. The soybean...
WASDE Corn - Mar 2026
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. corn outlook is unchanged from last month. Global corn ending stocks increased by 3.8 million metric tons to 292.8 million. The season-average corn price received by U.S. producers is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel...
WASDE Wheat - Mar 2026
USDA’s outlook for 2025/26 U.S. wheat supply and use categories are unchanged from last month. Global supplies increased modestly by 0.2 million tons to 1,101.8 million and global ending stocks remain at a 5-year high. The result is that the average U.S. farm price is adjusted up modestly...
Economic Outlook for 2026
The January jobs report surprised to the upside, coming in at 172,000 new jobs, well above the consensus expectation of 68,000. However, the February report showed jobs falling by 86,000, far off the consensus expectation of a gain of 60,000. This loss was driven by education, leisure and hospi...
AP Quant: WASDE Wheat
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Soybeans
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
AP Quant: WASDE Corn
WPI offers the following PDF of key supply and demand tables and charts relating to the USDA’s latest WASDE report. This is not an all-inclusive compilation of relevant market factors, only those which we feel are of top priority. WPI will seek to expand the offerings in this report and w...
Process Standards as NTBs; Nazi Food
Process Standards as NTBs California’s Prop 12, which a House Agriculture Committee-passed farm bill is supposed to override, restricts the sale of pork and eggs in the state if not produced according to its restrictive standards. Such processing restrictions have long been used as nontar...
Iran War Hits Fertilizer Supply and Disrupts SMP Trade
Today the war in Iran has hit its 10th day. Iranian forces have sustained their retaliatory strikes on US military assets and other key infrastructure in Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. The latest Iranian attacks on Bahrain have damaged a water desalination plant. Further, more than a...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn The corn harvest is beginning to gain momentum in Argentina. So far, 7 percent of the area has been harvested, with the core corn region already reaching 10 percent. Yields remain heterogeneous. Some areas are performing well above average, while others are showing the impact of late-seaso...
Middle East Grain Trade Trends
Somewhat lost in the current discussion over the impacts of the conflict in Iran and the Persian Gulf is the impact on grain trade. The region is not usually at the top of grain market analysts’ thinking when it comes to major demand centers, yet it accounts for significant global grain c...
Transportation Perspectives - 5 March
As you might guess, it is all about the conflict in the Middle East this week when discussing anything connected to energy or freight markets. Rate estimates, fuel costs, and insurance premiums (if available) have all skyrocketed since the U.S. attacked Iran and Iran attacked 15 of its neighbor...
RVO Math Still Missing Some Key Factors, Affecting Planting Decisions?
The market is still waiting for the 2026-2027 required volume obligation (RVO) to be announced. The expectation is that it will come by the end of this month; the proposed rule was issued in June 2025, referred to as the “Set 2” rule because there are several proposals that are re-s...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
WHEAT As February draws to a close, wheat exports during the first quarter of the marketing year (December–February) are approaching 10 MMT, compared with a five-year average of 5 MMT. Argentina’s ample wheat supply continues to weigh on both global and domestic prices. The country...
Transportation and Export Report - 26 February
The start of 2026 has been the exact opposite of what dry bulk markets and traders expected at the end of 2025. Typically, the Lunar New Year and post-holiday demand lulls mean that Q1 freight rates are often the weakest of the year. This year, however, rates rallied sharply on unexpected deman...
U.S. Soy & Product Export Trends
With soybean and soy product exports frequently in the headlines amid the ongoing tariff and policy shifts from Washington, examining export trends is increasingly important. Thursday’s updated Export Sales report from the USDA offered some interesting statistics for these markets, and WP...
Tariff Confusion Fun; Practical Judgements and Threats to Food; Glypho Confusion; Food Inflation
Tariff Confusion Fun Reactions to the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling that general use of tariffs is not within the President’s authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) have been wildly diverse. Mass media headlines initially celebrated the “smack do...
Mercosur Regional Analysis
Corn Rains finally arrived across much of Argentina’s agricultural region, halting the crop deterioration seen in recent weeks. The core corn and soybean region benefited most, with some areas receiving up to 100 mm. However, localized damage from excess moisture, wind and hail affected a...
IEEPA Tariffs Struck Down, Outlook for Livestock and Poultry
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Agricultural Outlook Forum is taking place this week, covering key agricultural topics, unveiling the 10-year long-term baseline forecast, and providing commodity outlook updates. Further, the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the International Emergency E...
Thoughts on USDA Ag Outlook Numbers
The USDA’s annual Agricultural Outlook Forum (AOF) featured the agency’s first look at the 2026/27 balance sheet for the major U.S. crops and livestock products. For corn, wheat, and soybeans, this year’s numbers were in line with expectations and did not spark much reaction f...
Transportation and Export Report - 19 February
Dry bulk ocean freight markets are once again seeing diverging trends across the Atlantic and Pacific basins. Key to this divergence is the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday, which started last weekend and will last through 3 March. That is putting much of Asia on hold for trading and vessel inqui...