It's only a warm (under 100 degrees) Thursday morning in the southwest.... Magpie goose
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Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Transatlantic Thrashings; China Bashing; Counterintuitive

Activist groups in Europe are upset about new reports that reveal high levels of acrylamides in biscuits and French fries. Fortunately, there is a solution...

A Conflicted Soybean Market

Despite the large fund investment in the soybean market, soybean futures prices have stayed in a trading range during the past two months that reflects the...

Energy Trade Under NAFTA

While there has been much focus on manufactured goods and agriculture, there is one sector of North American trade that has been largely overlooked in term...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy prices eased back into the red during the early morning hours. Those weaker prices then carried over to the day session when the market’s att...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The trade is interested in buying Bulgarian/Romanian feed wheat for July/August at €157/MT ($167/MT) FOB. While Ukrainian origin might be available at the...

SWAT Event; CAP Reform; Process Labeling

There is plenty of division as EU agriculture ministers began debate today on the post-2020 Common Agricultural Policy. Farmers want simplification and no...

Market Commentary

Wheat actually led the grains complex higher as soybeans and corn turned lower. The KC-Chicago wheat spread remains strong with higher values likely given...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Activity in Brazil’s soybean market remains concentrated in the spot, but the Chinese are placing bids on March, April and, eventually, part of May positio...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

More Competition for the Dakotas’ Soybeans

While soybean production continues to expand rapidly in the Dakotas, the only processing plant located in either state is in Volga, South Dakota. However,...

HPAI Outbreak Confirmed in Tennessee

In a rare Sunday public statement, USDA’s APHIS yesterday announced the discovery of a strain of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) on a commercial b...

Market Commentary

Corn traded mostly steady today with light volume. PNW corn export basis was up 15 cents overnight with most of that likely the result of logistics issues...

Reversals: Fortunes; Perspective and Production

This week agricultural trade specialists gathered in Washington to lament the current atmosphere created by the Trump presidency and its risk to the sector...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Wheat prices have softened quite a bit in the past five weeks as imports have been good. While there has been no official announcement yet, it is being spe...

Big Insurance Guarantee for Soybeans

A comparison of today’s calculations with those of  2011 provides insight into one of the driving forces behind the rapid escalation in land values du...

Top Seven Reasons Why RFS Reform Will Happen in the 115th Congress

RFS reform is gaining congressional attention, if not momentum.As Gary Blumenthal wrote this week (see Ag Perspectives, 1 March), Representative John Shimk...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...

Market Commentary

Prices continued to slide lower during the day session. Fund buying largely subsided, and some of the light-footed funds were selling back limited amounts...

Hyperbolic; 15 March; Aid; Conflict; Naked Farming

Newly-installed Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross has indicated that Congress will be officially notified on 15 March that a renegotiation of NAFTA is being s...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Pork and Chicken Surprises; Chicken Price Index Dropped

Year-to date-pork production is down from expectations, and chicken production is off to a fast start. Where’s the Pork? Pork packer margins have dropped p...

The Tale of Three Crops

With market attention soon shifting to prospects for the new crop year, it is worth noting some of the “big picture” fundamental similarities and differenc...

RFS Rewrite; Paid Diversion; USA Void

Donald Trump is pulling the U.S. back from its international commitments, and the result is that it is strengthening the roles of other countries and regio...

China In-Country Analysis

Despite a decline in the landed price of imported soybeans to $425/MT last week from $435/MT the previous week, the crush margin remained under significant...

Market Commentary

Funds were active buyers again today. The ethanol situation grabbed the headlines, but there were a few other bullish straws in the wind to help support th...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Russian Agriculture Minister Aleksandr Tkachov has forecast the country’s MY 2016/17 grain exports at about 37 MMT,  a drop from the ministry’s previo...

The 2017/18 U.S. Corn Outlook

WPI releases its first forecast for the 2017/18 U.S. corn crop with planted area and yield above USDA estimates. Ending stocks are forecast...In conjunctio...

Future Biofuels Policy Clear as Mud

Erroneous news leaks regarding biofuels policies sent commodity markets on a wild ride and prompted a rebuttal from the American Petroleum Institute. Amid...

Market Commentary

Markets raged higher on rumors of biofuels regulation reform from the White House, while large deliveries were noted against many grain futures contracts...

Jonesing; WTO Failure; Ethanol; WOTUS; Cuts; Infrastucture

The U.S. maritime industry needs to start supporting national defense and stop hiding behind it while the WTO needs to educate its poorer members – and Don...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

A recent Rabobank report says the poultry industry will grow more than 60 percent over the next 20 years, but the expansion will be far greater percentage-...

Ag Review: Farm Equipment Outlook 2017

2016 Agribusiness Performance Recap and 2017 OutlookWPI Bull/Bear Leanings for Agribusiness in 2017 A summary and graphical depictions of WPI’s expec...

Market Commentary

Tomorrow is first notice for delivery against the March futures contracts, and markets are expecting heavy deliveries in Chicago wheat and soyoil. It is al...

Wars: Food; Labor; Science

The U.S. farm sector is nervous about Donald Trump’s crackdown on illegal laborers. Those workers may account for half the labor in sectors such as dairy...

A Big One Falls

One of North Dakota’s largest farmers filed a Chapter 7 bankruptcy petition recently. Most will blame the collapse on the downturn in commodity prices. Whi...

China Plans High-Value, Improved Quality, Large-Scale Agriculture

China's so-called Number 1 Document has been released, which is focused on agriculture and rural policy. While reaffirming some key policies already in pla...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Farmers in Bulgaria and Romania will start planting corn in a few weeks. They will probably reduce that acreage after suffering from low yields during the...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

After the corn harvest delays of last year, most Argentine exporters cut their programs for March shipment in order to reduce high demurrage rates should t...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India's production of milk, egg and poultry meat continues to grow, but most of that is consumed by a simultaneously expanding population. However, its buf...

OPEC Production Impact on U.S. Crude Supply

OPEC members, especially Saudi Arabia and Iraq, actually increased production in advance of  the 1 January 2017 implementation of their agreement to r...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...

Market Commentary

Markets were mixed overnight with corn and wheat slightly lower and soybeans slightly higher. That trend continued today, but the losses in one market acce...

Advantage or Threat; Warring Ministers; Regionalism

A WTO appellate panel unsurprisingly ruled against Russia and its total prohibition of EU pork and pigs due to localized outbreaks of swine fever. The juri...

Do Smaller U.S. Ending Supplies Signal a Price Shift?

The market was particularly interested in USDA's 2017/18 U.S. supply and demand estimates of today, which have to be considered at least somewhat price pos...

Surprise China Plan; Alamo Stance on Corn; EU’s Trumps

U.S. Ambassador to China nominee and Iowa Governor Terry Branstad was not expected to say anything about China when he made a keynote address today at USDA...

U.S. Soybean Industry to Focus on Sustainability and Higher Value

The United Soybean Board, the national soybean checkoff organization, has approved a new five-year strategic plan aimed at increasing the value and competi...

Outlook Acreage Projections

USDA always holds its annual Agricultural Outlook Forum in late February. Among other things, there has been great interest in learning its latest views on...

Market Commentary

Trading overnight saw grain and soy prices drift lower with expectations of bearish projections from USDA. The day session produced more of the same, which...

Cattle on Feed Report with a New Format

Last month's feeder calf placements data points to a changing supply situation for the beef market next quarter. Similarly, feedlots' fed cattle marketings...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Farm Bill Stress; BAT Attack; SNAP Judgement

So-called experts and analysts are fighting with contradictory analyses over a proposed border adjustment tax (BAT) in the U.S., and how currency exchange...

Market Commentary

Overnight trading volumes in grain and soy were lower than recent evening sessions. One reason for the diminished volume likely stemmed from less active an...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's milling wheat prices kept rising due to active demand from traders and exporters as well as limited offer of tradable lots from producers. Meanwh...

China In-Country Analysis

A combination of certain factors continued to push down China's wholesale hog prices in February. Other developments are having an impact on the structure...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Farm Balance Sheet Impact on Planting and the Farm Bill

What will continued low crop prices and debt accumulation mean for production and policy?Macroeconomic factors in 2016 (i.e., uneven global economic growth...

Market Commentary

Trading volume last evening was good, especially for soybeans as the complex responded to higher soymeal prices traded at China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Maize and sorghum prices in eastern Africa are at record levels due to last year’s severe drought. Meanwhile, one organization has warned of an infestation...

Playing Around with Managed Funds

Without a pipeline into the thinking of fund managers who have decided to re-enter the long side of the agricultural futures market in a major way, even af...

Non-Reorganization; Trade Disputes; Notable Research

India is seeking a WTO dispute settlement panel to rule against subsidy and local content requirements for renewable energy in some American states. The U...

China Controls World Food; Create Demand; Europe?

Noted China agriculture analyst Fred Gale observes that Beijing’s latest policy for the sector is to renationalize food and seek world domination, which is...

A Glimmer of Hope in the Wheat Market?

The wheat markets have been solidly bearish for what seems like an eternity. Although the world has produced four consecutive record wheat crops, that is s...

Market Commentary

Corn followed the soybean market lower with fund selling the primary ingredient. The market wasn’t willing to extend long bets ahead of this three-day week...

Yesterday Without Immigrants

A planned work boycott by immigrant employees had an impact on the meat-packing sector.Immigration policy has been a contentious issue for years, but agric...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

GOI released the second Agricultural Production Advance Estimates this week, which indicated an approximate 8.11 percent increase in farm output versus las...

Market Commentary

Overnight trading saw prices ease back from yesterday’s rally levels, but that session’s results did not prepare the market for today’s wave of long liquid...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Clear Trade Policy Agenda; Healthy Bias

U.S. Senate Finance Committee Democrats complain that after a meeting yesterday with White House Trade Council Director Peter Navarro, they still don’t kno...

USDA’s 10-Year Baseline Assumptions

As it does each year in advance of its annual Outlook Forum in February, USDA today released a report that outlines the numerous assumptions used to constr...

Livestock Price Outlook

Both the beef and swine herds are in expansion mode, but cattle and hogs are looking at different price forecasts compared with last year.Cattle prices end...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

The Russian Ministry of Agriculture reported that 23.088 MMT of grain had been exported as of 8 February and from the beginning of MY 2016/17, down slightl...

China In-Country Analysis

From mid-January through the end of the month, China’s estimated soymeal inventories fell sharply due to a combination of factors. Meanwhile, the ave...

TEA Not BAT, Truth Slip; Food Police and Grandma

Japanese Prime Minister Shinzō Abe was out of the bromance embrace of Donald Trump when his finance minister, Taro Aso, let the truth slip about currency m...

Market Commentary

CME prices started to drift a bit lower overnight in slowing volume as concerns about the growing avian flu problem in China caused Dalian prices for corn...

Trump Ag Speaks; USAID Concerns; OECD Water

A Trump administration agriculture official addressed a meeting of private sector industry representatives today and made several notable points. Trump Ag...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

The annual inflation rate in Egypt jumped to 24.3 percent in December, the highest it has been in seven years and more than double the 2015 level. This was...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Market Commentary

Markets had a softer tone overnight, but trading volume did remain quite heavy for the evening session. The big fund buying that has been present the past...

What If NAFTA Renegotiations Trigger a Corn War?

President Trump has promised or threatened, depending on one’s perspective, to renegotiate NAFTA. However, most U.S. ag groups have communicated their rese...

What Will Help Push Soybean Acres Higher?

The market has been assuming U.S. producers will boost soybean plantings by at least 4 million acres and perhaps as much as 5 or 6 million. While the reaso...

First Year of Macri Ag Policies Leads to Argentine Natural Gas Boom

 President Mauricio Macri began his efforts to encourage innovation in agriculture, increase exports and boost rural economies upon assuming office in...

The Fundamental Truth

The fact that the notable reductions of world stocks estimates in the February WASDE are still not enough to prevent record-large levels seems to underline...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

FOB prices were steady this week, while corn became the commodity with movement as several trades were reported. Asian consumers and trading houses are ver...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The market in Bulgaria and Romania is firm in sympathy with the MATIF rally. Both countries still have about 10 percent of the total surplus, and the cheap...

Market Commentary

The lower CME prices overnight ran counter to price trends at China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange. As day trading commenced, fund bids put a floor under pric...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Trumplomacy; Comitology 3.0

While one expected things to go well between Trump and the UK’s Theresa May, his bromance this past weekend with Shinzō Abe remains a mystery to many tryin...

Market Commentary

Markets were slightly firmer in the night session with soybeans resuming the lead higher. The markets then opened at new highs when the day session got rol...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

While too early to know whether India’s oil meal exports are rebounding, domestic demand is growing, especially for de-oiled rice bran (DORB).That open mar...

Trade Economics in the 1980s and Today

U.S. trade policy is being developed to reduce the national trade deficit, but there is one factor more important to consider than the trade balance.As dis...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

The economic plight of farmers across the southern Plains simply doesn't exists throughout U.S. production agriculture. In fact, the sector’s overall finan...

Trump Conundrum; Wheat Non-Compete

U.S. Wheat Associates and the Western Canadian Wheat Growers Association ought to view each other as competitors and thus show little willingness to help t...

Market Commentary

Generally, traders expected a less-than-bullish February WASDE from USDA today. Perhaps that is why two unexpected changes seemed to generate an outsized r...

Naked Farming; Mexican Market; Farm Situation

A petition has been launched in Europe that would require the European Commission to consider a complete ban on the use of glyphosate as well as mandatory...

The February WASDE

February WASDEs are seldom described as market-changing, and today’s release was no exception. However, it did contain a number of adjustments of interest...

U.S. Beef, Pork and Poultry Exports in 2016; Trump-Abe Meeting

USDA data confirmed last year’s beef, pork and poultry exports all increased over 2015, and one category showed exceptional growth. Meanwhile, U.S. produce...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Pre-WASDE Soybean Positions

Traders holding short soybean positions before tomorrow’s USDA WASDE report should not be overly concerned by today’s bullish price action.Comparing the fo...

China In-Country Analysis

U.S. pork shipments to China in December helped push the total volume for all of 2016 to 363,121 MT at a total value near $715 million. Meanwhile, the outl...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Sunflower seed prices on Ukraine's domestic market kept growing because of several factors as FOB offers were stable. Meanwhile, Vietnam has recently becom...

Fear-Driven Exports; Skewed Trade Sought

The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) needs another big economy within the trade pact since the U.S. dropped out, and the Australians solicited the Chinese t...

Market Commentary

Soybean futures continued to show strength as they ended overnight trade about 8 cents higher. That rally persisted during the day session while the grains...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

A recent British report on the maize-damaging fall armyworm in Africa states that the entire continent could suffer from outbreaks within a very few years...

Quick History of the Farm Bill and Federal Budget

There is federal budget pressure on the 2018 Farm Bill. Unlike with most past farm bills, though, it could be real this time.Since 1977 when the then-named...

Market Commentary

After uninspiring overnight trade, grain and soy prices did manage to climb higher soon after the day session began. Soybeans and meal were supported by fu...

Mending Transatlantic; Supply Management

Last week’s policy proclamations by the National Farmers Union in the U.S. proved that the organization is persistent and consistent in its decades-long ad...

An Unhappy Outlook for U.S. Wheat

It would not be fair or accurate to call wheat a minor U.S. crop, but it seems headed in that direction due to wheat prices that have been low enough to de...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Offers of feed wheat are very difficult to find in Ukraine, and none are available in Romania and Bulgaria. The only available origin in the Black Sea is R...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Brazil has good soybean demand for deferred positions, partially driven by certain issues in the U.S. PNW. However, it is difficult to obtain offers. Some...

Market Commentary

Corn and wheat futures traded slightly lower last night, and that same pattern held true throughout today. Meanwhile, there were several reasons cited for...

Farmland Values Stay High, Saving Farm Balance Sheets

While U.S. farmland values soared during the big bull market that lasted from 2006 through 2013, all good things must end. However, the overall declines ha...

Japan Rebuff; NAFTA and Farm Bill Rewrite

Donald Trump will reportedly push for a bilateral trade deal with Japan when he meets next week with Prime Minister Shinzō Abe, but the idea may not be war...

Market Commentary

Markets were mixed overnight. The soy complex then joined wheat and corn when this morning's session opened by trading lower. Although there again wasn't a...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India's 2017/18 budget was released early and includes several notable provisions that will help the agriculture sector. Left out, however, was any signifi...

The Pulse Explosion

Pulses have been around for thousands of years and are the staple food in India. These crops have been grown in very small parts of the U.S. since the 1950...

Washington, DC Political Chatter

Presenting a roundup of those political issues of interest to agriculture...Following is an end-of-the-week roundup of some of the politic issues of intere...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...

Implications of EU Policy; Overwrought; Rich off Ugly

The EU’s Agriculture Commission will reportedly present five options next week for revising the Common Agricultural Policy. Among them is a focus on...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Market Commentary

It may have seemed that grain and soy futures markets took the day off. While prices veered very slightly lower overnight, they then traded both sides duri...

Staring Into the Unknown

A new and different market environment will face grain futures market fundamentalists and technical traders alike as the Trump administration seems likely...

U.S. Export Competitiveness in Five Charts

Drivers of U.S. soybean, corn, wheat, soymeal and sorghum export opportunities are discussed with a view toward the long run.While large export volumes sur...

Market Commentary

Overnight trade saw moderate volume and some modest weakening of grain and soy prices. The weaker prices prevailed at the resumption of trade this morning...

China In-Country Analysis

China’s corn overhang coupled with its removal of state support wreaked havoc on U.S. exports of both DDGS and sorghum throughout 2016. However, the...

Messy Trade Debate

Until the Trump era, the U.S. served as the world’s leader in promoting free trade. Now it is being treated like a pariah for suggesting the playing field...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Wth 13.1 percent more grain stocks as of 1 January than a year ago, the forecast for Russia's MY 2016/17 grain exports has been increased again. Meanwhile,...

Two Reasons Brent Crude Will Remain Under $60

The EIA’s January Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts Brent Crude oil prices will be steady through 2018 and unable to break the $60 ceiling.The U.S. Energ...

Closing Futures Prices

Activity in the Chicago SRW wheat market spilled over into those for HRW and HRS wheat futures. Changes in the soybean, soyoil, and soymeal futures point t...

Market Commentary

The question going into last night’s trading session was whether the soy complex and grains could mount some sort of turnaround from yesterday’s sharp decl...

U.S. Corn Outlook

It is worth taking a fresh look at the fundamental U.S. supply/demand outlook for 2016/17 since what happens throughout the balance of this year will have...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

South Africa’s Crop Estimates Committee has forecast that maize plantings will increase 31 percent in 2017 with those of white maize up by 53.5 perce...

What Will Canada’s Farmers Plant in 2017?

Numerous sources north of the border suggest Canadian farmers’ 2017 planting intentions could involve a shift similar to what may occur in the U.S. Numerou...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

There are currently no signs of significant winterkill in Eastern Europe, and the soil moisture is adequate in most of the region. If there is no serious w...

More from Scott Pruitt on the RFS

Scott Pruitt, nominated to be EPA administrator, was pressed to provide more substantive answers regarding the RFS by senators who will eventually be votin...

Market Commentary

Markets opened lower Sunday evening, and soybean futures were down more than a dime overnight. The soy complex then suffered the brunt of today’s generally...

Democracy versus Science; Border Tax

The European Union’s commissioners will consider a change this Wednesday in the rules as to how GMOs are considered for approval; there is great frustratio...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Despite Argentina's current corn prices ($150-155/MT) along with a record production (35-36 MMT) forecast and expectations that the exchange rate will not...

Closing Futures Prices

WPI provides a summary of the week's futures price activity and the gains/losses experiences by grain, oilseed, and livestock markets. Additionally, today'...

What About Minor Crops in 2017?

Soybeans clearly surpass every other cropping choice based on current new crop prices, but there are many so-called minor crops that will also be impacted...

Market Commentary

Fireworks may be the key feature of the Chinese New Year celebration, but they were not present at the CBOT today. Trading today was largely “low and slow,...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

The corn price for delivery to a starch plant in Gujarat is currently $226/MT, and availability is poor. While starch manufacturers could ensure receipt of...

Strategic Petroleum Reserve Policy: Buy High, Sell Low

The U.S. Department of Energy is beginning to award contracts for sales of crude oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which will continue for th...

Market Commentary

While corn prices drifted lower amid fears that trade with Mexico might be disrupted by tariffs on Mexican imports to pay for the border wall President Tru...

Agricultural Trade Anxiety

It seems clear that President Trump’s view of trade mostly involves manufactured products and the raw materials needed for manufacturing. Publicly, he has...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Mexico Miscalculates; Trade Leadership Vacuum

There is much lamenting in Europe over Donald Trump’s decision to end the U.S. leadership on trade liberalization, mostly because it exposes Europe’s limit...

More Evidence of Strong Pork Demand; Super Bowl Wing Consumption

The biggest drawdown of pork stocks in cold storage of any December has spurred producers to reiterate the importance of trade. Meanwhile, a forecast of U...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

While soybean prices dropped in Russia, they grew on both the domestic and export markets in Ukraine because of increasing offer. During the next two weeks...

Trade Taxes; Emergencies; Armyworms; Trump Trade Priority

A Chinese newspaper reported that Beijing will block imports of U.S. grain should the American government impose a 35 percent tariff on imports as threaten...

Market Commentary

Despite the choppy markets and what appears to be a pause in the slow upward price trends, quite a few noncommercial fund managers seem comfortable, at lea...

China In-Country Analysis

With the landed price of imported soybeans climbing for the second consecutive week to an average $443/MT, the crushing margin fell to RMB 235/MT ($34.64/M...

A Happy New Year – So Far

Big crops and low prices have been a fact of market life for so long that it is worth pointing out something of a change in the early weeks of 2017.Beginni...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's closing prices for the first six listed futures contracts for major grain, oilseed, and livestock contracts are shown along with their price change...

Ethanol Policy; Farm Bill Issues; FTAs and Buy America

Donald Trump contends that bilateral trade agreements are better for the U.S., presumably because there is no dilution of America’s leverage from being the...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Grain traders in Europe are saying that Germany, Poland and the Baltic states will be replacing France as the major exporters of wheat to North Africa and...

Market Commentary

As the day session opened, the soybean market seemed poised to continue the overnight technical rally, but it was not to be. Concerns over President Trump’...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Regulation and Conflict

The Trump trade policy agenda has ramped up discussions in Washington this week at think tanks and embassies, and there are at least six public meetings on...

Soybeans Rule

Rarely has there been a period of time in grain markets when one commodity has dominated the market action as soybeans recently have, both in terms of pric...

Market Commentary

Corn tenaciously remained unchanged today even as the soy complex promptly retreated on improving weather in Argentina. U.S. corn basis is still competitiv...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Demand-induced nervousness is causing Argentina’s wheat prices to rise, while higher flat prices for corn will soon encourage farmer selling. Soybeans Arge...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Trump’s Tipping Point

Hugely successful writer Malcom Gladwell focuses on explaining the unexpected or explaining the unexpected out of the usual. Donald Trump’s inaugural speec...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Chickpeas are a popular source of protein in India. However, prices of the whole chickpea and the split dal (pulse) are on the rise. As a result, many cons...

Market Commentary

On a day when the world was watching Washington, DC, unusual activity in the wheat spreads was noted, and Argentina’s soybean production forecast was revis...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

The market chatter for much of this week concerned the many guesses coming out of Argentina on lost acres and possible final production. Meanwhile, two fac...

The Next Few Months at USDA

After Donald Trump was sworn in as the 45th president at noon (EST) today, a team of temporary political appointees moved to fill a number of jobs in the n...

Trump Trade Policy Emerges; Risk-Based GMOs

After three days of congressional hearings and other public musings, the actual trade policy approach of the incoming Trump administration is becoming clea...

Corn’s Conflicting Story

Whether or not corn can develop a livelier story that might stimulate market activity is an active question with the answer yet to be determined. That answ...

Market Commentary

The grain and soy markets remain in a consolidating mood after the recent price gains and seem to be seeking some sort of a comfort level. Argentine weathe...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

The overnight session saw grain and soy prices trade both sides of Tuesday’s closes in much lighter volume, and that arried over into the day session witho...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's milling wheat and feed wheat prices grew on the domestic market because of three factors. Meanwhile, the country reported record productions of b...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Trump Trade; EU GMO; Organic Change; Jones Okay

Testimony on Capitol Hill by top nominees in the Trump administration is adding context to what policy can be expected. Wilbur Ross is anticipated to have...

China In-Country Analysis

U.S. food and agricultural exports to China in November 2016 reached the third-highest volume for that month at 8.72 MMT. The total was up 8 percent versus...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

While South Africa's total wheat consumption is about 3.2 MMT, its local production has dropped from 2.43 MMT in 2000 to only 1.4 MMT in 2015/16. Experts s...

Déjà Vu: South American Weather

South American weather is bringing back memories of last year's production losses and raising the chances that there could be similar unexpected demand thr...

Market Commentary

Traders responded last evening to the South American weather situation by pushing soybean and soymeal futures prices sharply higher in heavy trading volume...

Growing Urban Caucus Among House Ag Committee Members

House Agriculture Committee Ranking Minority Member Collin Peterson (D-Minnesota) announced the new Democratic members of the House Agriculture Committee o...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Literal Trump; European Change; Ag to Pay Price

U.S. President-elect Donald Trump managed to upset both Europe and the U.S. dollar over the past 24 hours. He said the U.S. dollar was too strong and quest...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

After being stable until the third week of December 2016, sugar prices are moving up faster than expected in this current sugar season as there is higher d...

Cap CFTC; Greens against CAP; Trump’s Future

Republicans in the U.S. House passed a bill that would cap the budget of the CFTC for five years and require more substantial analysis before the agency is...

What the USDA Reports Didn’t Do

The one sure thing about the January USDA reports is that they generated more interest than the market has seen in a long time. However, what USDA didn’t d...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Yesterday’s explosive reaction to the WASDE failed to carry over into the overnight session. Then as the market opened the day trading session, weakness wa...

Market Commentary

The soybean market helped preserve the reputation held by USDA’s January reports for triggering a strong price reaction in the immediate wake of their rele...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

USDA’s January Reports

There is no question that the tone of today’s USDA reports is at least mildly bullish, and markets have reacted accordingly. However, it is worth asking wh...

Big Tech; Cross-Compliance; Currency Fight

The corporate leaders for Monsanto and Bayer met with President-elect Donald Trump this week, and it is said the focus was not on the proposed merger of th...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Positional Conflict; Purely Profit

Meat from slow-growing poultry is now the marketing rage with its perceived welfare benefits to the birds, but there are conflicts similar to those found i...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Although Russia's overall grain exports are down somewhat in MY 2016/17 as of 28 December 2016 versus a year ago, its corn exports showed a notable change...

Market Commentary

While the Chinese announcement that the punitive antidumping duties on U.S. DDGS would now go into effect caused the inverted Dalian meal futures to rally...

China In-Country Analysis

The beginning of 2017 brought virtually no relief to China’s domestic corn market as the average price dropped in all major provinces except for Shan...

Trends for Commodity Prices

Commodity prices are notoriously cyclical, and those who follow grain and oilseed markets may not fully appreciate the broader rally they had in 2016. Now...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

With Egypt expected to need 11.2 MMT of imported wheat this year, private grain importers there are saying that banks are forcing them into bankruptcy beca...

Media Smorgasbord; Farm Subsidy Impacts

In the past, the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) was structured as an honest broker between federal agencies seeking to find consensus on difficult trade...

Market Commentary

Today’s lackadaisical futures trade seemed to reflect pre-report expectations, namely that USDA’s corn numbers may be bearish, the soybean numbers may be b...

Ethanol Production Increasing Corn Use

Expanded ethanol production and a bullish outlook mean higher corn grind for this industry in 2017.The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicat...

Avian Barriers; Change in Futures Trading

South Korea has agreed to allow the importation of fresh eggs from the U.S. after being previously banned, but it is doing so only after a severe domestic...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

After a very active November and December, the soybean market came to a standstill toward the end of the year and has started 2017 with very little movemen...

A Few Key Numbers to Watch in Thursday’s USDA Reports

USDA will release its January series of reports on 12 January. They will include a plethora of numbers, but there are several key ones that the market will...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Markets started the Sunday night session just fractionally higher, but wheat led them throughout the night with gains of 2-3 cents. It wasn’t the price tha...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The Black Sea market remained about unchanged during the past three weeks. The Russian wheat balance sheet looks heavy on paper, but two factors are preven...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

During the demonetization period that began in November 2016, the price of cottonseed oil cake, a major source of protein for livestock in India, continued...

Taxes and Trade, Food; Nationalism; Skewed Sources

Contradicting President-elect Donald Trump, U.S. House Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin) announced this week on a radio program that there will be no border...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

U..S. Winter Wheat Ratings and Argentina’s Acreage Estimates

Weather may be having an impact on U.S. hard red winter wheat, but another factor will also influence production in 2017. Meanwhile, Argentina's soybean an...

Market Commentary

Markets were soft overnight, led by weakness in the soy complex, and a small weekly export sales number this morning pushed prices lower. Wheat, though, sh...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy futures trade overnight was mostly in the direction of lower prices with volume about average. The day session proved to be more active with...

Oilseed Highlights

Many of the soybeans that were inundated by the floods in Argentina will not survive, and it is almost too late to replant. While the situation is differen...

Politics and Agriculture

The potentially murkiest policy questions facing the new Trump administration concern trade, an area where U.S agriculture has a very large stake. At its f...

Trump Trade with Russia and China

Russia and China are two significant export markets for the meat and poultry sector, and they have the potential to be even more so in the future. However,...

In a Name; Terms of Trade

A pending issue before U.S. FDA is whether plant-based foods such as soy milk, almond milk and rice milk can be called “milk,” and a similar fight is occur...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

China In-Country Analysis

The landed price of imported soybeans was $422/MT last week, up $3/MT from the week before, and that combined with amother factor to bring domestic crush m...

Market Commentary

Traders may have paid limited attention to South American weather Tuesday as they returned from the long weekend, but it was front and center today. The re...

Trump versus China; Euro Stalingrad; Expectations of Trump

President-elect Donald Trump says he is going to stop China from “taking our jobs” and has hired a bevy of fellow China-bashers to execute the plan. Beijin...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

While grain exports from Russian seaports grew to 24.3 MMT in 2016 against 22.9 MMT the previous year, those from Ukrainian seaports were significantly hig...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

A New Year and Old Markets

It is a new year, according to the calendar, but it would appear that grain and soy futures markets have transited seamlessly from the last one. However, a...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

There has been quite a bit of comment that the new design of the Saudi Grains Organization (SGO) could greatly benefit foreign investors in Saudi Arabia’s...

Oilseed Highlights

The government of Argentina issued a decree yesterday that reaffirmed an earlier decision regarding the export taxes on soybeans and soy products, and this...

Predicted Food Trends: Will Meat Follow the Path of Beer?

A recent National Restaurant Association survey of chefs shows protein demand is likely to grow and change toward more specialty items. Could the evolution...

Market Commentary

Apparently, of more interest to traders than South American weather is the imminent rebalancing of index funds. Thus, Inter-market spreading was the story...

Lighthizer Reactions; Locality Bullying

Politicians try all kinds of ways to benefit special interests, particularly domestic ones. Nationalism and localism are common and tend to distort trade...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Prior to GOI’s elimination of the import duty in early December, wheat prices had reached a high of $354/MT in the New Delhi spot market. They have eased c...

Market Commentary

Markets were mixed at the start of the last trading day for 2016. As of the close today, the soybean futures market was up almost $1.50/bushel for the year...

First 100 Days

While Donald Trump has now been housed for many days at the Mar-a-Lago complex in Florida, the next three months are critical to the shape and substance of...

Astonishing U.S. Corn Crop

The U.S. Grains Council just released its 2016/17 Corn Harvest Quality Report, and the analysis of the 2016 U.S. crop goes quite far toward explaining how...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Milk Wars

Dairy producers are challenging use of the term “milk” for products such as soy milk, almond milk, rice milk, etc., and the plant-based beverage makers' ar...

Commodities Are Attractive Again

Commodities have become attractive to investors again, although not for reasons of portfolio diversification. Of the several factors that have combined to...

Tail Wags; Unprincipled; Passing Grade Only

Russia’s cyber interference in the U.S. election was wrong, but removing some diplomats and blocking access to some buildings in the U.S. is hardly punishm...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

U.S. Retaliates on EU Beef Ban; Cold Storage Report

The decades-old U.S./EU beef trade dispute is back on the front burner as the U.S. decides to retaliate. Meanwhile, a USDA report, which showed meat and po...

Outlook for Soybeans in 2017

While it is impossible to know and probably foolish to speculate, this is a good time to look at what may happen in 2017 pertinent to the global soybean se...

Market Commentary

Corn futures prices closed slightly higher in what was for the most part directionless, low volume trading, and wheat put in a rare performance as the mark...

China In-Country Analysis

U.S. ethanol exports to China have followed a similar trajectory to other U.S. food and agricultural exports for the first ten months of the year. The tota...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

According to Toleutay Rakhimbekov, director of the Agricultural Competence Center in the National Chamber of Entrepreneurs, the volume of Kazakhstan’s grai...

Market Commentary

After yesterday’s vigorous across-the-board rally of grain and soy futures prices, traders wondered if today would be this holiday-shortened week’s Turnaro...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Lopsided Analysis; Danger Year in Europe

Per the U.S. Embassy in Beijing, a copyright association assessment indicates that piracy in China is one of the highest in the world (over 90 percent). Th...

Livestock Inventories

Although USDA’s Cattle on Feed report was in line with expectations, the quarterly Hogs and Pigs report was not.WPI’s last Livestock Roundup (see Ag Perspe...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

2017 U.S. Policy Forecast

By their essence, government policies subsidize or penalize various actors in the economy. Some of this will change, but the complex nature of the democrac...

Market Commentary

Traders returning from the Christmas holiday found that a measure of good cheer for market bulls had been spread around while they were away, and the overn...

Oilseed Highlights

While most years are eventful for the world soybean sector, it seems that 2016 was even more so than usual. A Most Eventful Year for the Soybean Sector As...

2016 and 2017

As the end of this year and the beginning of the next one nears, it is hard to resist looking back at what has occurred and speculating about what lies ahe...

Market Commentary

In the soy complex, funds continued to slowly liquidate their long positions as weather in Argentina has improved. Meanwhile, wheat markets continue to be...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India’s capacity to crush corn for starch production could increase to 16,525 tons per day (TPD) by 2018, although that currently available is underused an...

Beef with EU; Change Agent; USDA Leadership

The U.S. won the beef hormone case against the EU seven years ago, but it has never been fully compensated - until perhaps now. Beef with EU The U.S. won t...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

All I Want for Christmas Is…

News is sparse on this eve of the Christmas holiday weekend. However, no one really cares about that or markets today, so perhaps a Christmas wish list is...

Ag Transition Causing Jitters

Although it is unknown at this point who will be the new USDA secretary, another cabinet nominee is adding to the nervousness felt by some aggies. Now in t...

Oilseed Highlights

The director of Cuba’s Center for Agricultural Research of Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology (CIGB) indicates that country may begin planting GM soybea...

Christmas Wishes 2016

The current poltical trend involving a nationalist populism and demands for change (however defined) around the world combined with other events provides a...

Market Commentary

Overnight trading opened mixed, but prices soon turned slightly lower. They were then quietly lower in slack trade durig the day session until the soy comp...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Indonesia Down, India Next; Canadian Superiority

A WTO dispute settlement panel sided with the U.S. (and New Zealand) in a ruling that Indonesia’s food import licensing scheme is illegal. Washington needs...

Market Commentary

It was a quiet, low volume overnight session, and perhaps the most telling feature of today was the very narrow daily trading ranges across the board. Outs...

Ag Review: The Exit of Commodities Bear Market?

WPI Bull/Bear Leanings for Agribusiness A summary and graphical depictions of WPI’s expectations for future agribusiness performance. The Flour Milli...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

China In-Country Analysis

 Because of recent government action that is impacting Chinese crushing facilities across more than 11 provinces and regions, the outlook for the coun...

Proximity; Inert versus Active

There are those that recommend dispersing federal agencies across the country with the belief that their financial largess will aid more communities than j...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

While Russia's milling wheat prices decreased across all regions, they grew slightly in Ukraine (in UAH expression) because of two factors. Meanwhile, Russ...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Strong grain demand from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is overwhelming Russia’s port facilities,  pushing the government there to expand and...

Trade Policy Lead; Japan’s Concessions; Deregulation

U.S. Commerce Secretary-designee Wilbur Ross has variously been described as a future major player, very intimately involved, or taking the lead in U.S. tr...

Potential Market Movers

There are several factors that might be grain and soy market movers in the foreseeable future, but markets may also face more unanswered questions with the...

Market Commentary

Yesterday’s weakness carried over into the overnight session, and grain and soy markets found no comfort during the day session either. Technical traders c...

Oilseed Highlights

An Argentine government proposal would require farmers to pay royalties on patented biotech seed for three years after the initial purchase, but the seed c...

House Ag Committee Report on SNAP

House Agriculture Committee Chairman Michael Conaway’s (R-Texas) top-to-bottom review of the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), promised two...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

The soy complex was soft in the Sunday session and stayed that way throughout today’s trading. Needed rainfall was received in parts of Argentina, which ha...

Rain in Argentina; Bitter Cold in U.S. Winter Wheat Country

It’s not often that we are talking about weather markets in the days before the Christmas holiday, but there was one of sorts today in soybeans and wheat.I...

Demagoguery; Less for More; Keep Punke

Some American cities and counties have attempted to ban the cultivation of GM crops within their jurisdiction, but China’s giant corn-growing province, Hei...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

While the soybean market in Argentina remains quiet with no trades last week, there was demand for June at +$0.18N but no sellers. Today demand is at +$0.0...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Sugar prices in Maharashtra may be dropping as new stocks become available at the market, but they could rise over the next few months because of one antic...

Freedom Caucus Regulatory Rollback Proposal

While it was formed to block Republican leadership from compromising with President Obama on most issues, the conservative House Freedom Caucus is now swit...

Market Commentary

Markets were mixed in relatively quiet trade overnight, and it was a low volume day with little in the way of fresh news to end the week. KC and Chicago wh...

Lopsided on China; Chef Sickness; European Trouble

President-elect Donald Trump’s phone call with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen has upset not just Beijing but China experts in Washington as well as some...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

2017 Acres and Ending Supplies

Thoughts are quickly starting to shift toward the potential for 2017 acres and how that might translate into U.S. production and ending supplies in MY 2017...

More Organic Grain; Last Agency Leader Named

The U.S. organic livestock products industry wants more organic certified feed, and U.S. grain growers would like to grow and sell organic grain for its pr...

USDA Publishes Long-Time Controversial GIPSA Rules

USDA’s GIPSA rules have been released, as promised, before President Obama leaves office. The rules have 60-day comment periods, which will expire in Febru...

Market Commentary

Overnight trade in grain and soy futures was seemingly frozen in place by the soaring U.S. dollar. However, trading was a bit more active during the day se...

The Attack of the U.S. Dollar

With the U.S. Federal Reserve Bank signaling a hawkish approach to monetary policy over the next two-three years, the U.S. dollar is on a tear. However, it...

Oilseed Highlights

Stats Canada reports that a record 1.77 MMT (65 million bushels) of soybeans were produced in Manitoba Province this year as farmers there continue to boos...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

The grain and soy markets had little at stake in the Fed’s rate hike other than the potential impact it might have on the U.S. dollar. However, soyoil gain...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Sunflower seed bids started growing in Ukraine. They increased to $383-405/MT EXW and $407-422/MT CPT as FOB offers rose to $395-415/MT. Because of the rep...

China In-Country Analysis

While last week’s imported soybean price of $432/MT was a $1/MT improvement from the previous week,  the average crush margin on those imports f...

How Trump Negotiates; China Status; Transatlantic Volatility

In what ought to be informative for agricultural trade policy specialists, President-elect Donald Trump is revealing his approach to negotiations. It is hi...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Turkey has announced a new $4 billion agricultural subsidy program that will cover 19 strategic crops. However, production of one in particular is neverthe...

Surging World Grain and Oilseed Supplies

From a strictly fundamental perspective, the U.S. and world supply/demand balance appears to be quite bearish. To be sure, there is record or near-record d...

Livestock Safe; No Tears for TPP; Only in DC

U.S. agriculture is hoping for less environmental regulation under Donald Trump’s presidency, but Barack Obama has not been totally unkind. Livestock Safe...

A Potential Democratic Nominee for Agriculture Secretary

North Dakota Democratic Senator Heidi Heitkamp is reportedly being considered for USDA secretary. What are some of the possible calculations behind this, a...

Oilseed Highlights

Stine Seed, an Iowa-based company, plans to offer about 200 farmers the opportunity next year to save back biotech soybean seed for replanting. The program...

Market Commentary

The action in overnight trade, such as it was, occurred in the soy complex in response to Asian markets. As seems to be something of a pattern these days,...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The milling wheat market in the Black Sea is firmer due to the stronger ruble and increasing demand from one particular country. Meanwhile, Algeria is in t...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

No Letup in Export Pace

Today’s weekly export inspections report again showed very strong soybean exports for last week, but corn and wheat exports were also quite good. It’s diff...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

It is too early to determine whether Argentina will have sufficient 12 percent protein wheat to fulfill the contracts already made. The lack of demand for...

Europe’s GMO Achievement; Unsustainable

Recent action by the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) s a stunning rebuke to the critics of GM technology that despite their rants and tactics, scient...

Market Commentary

Sunday markets started firm with early soybean futures trading as much as 10-11 cents higher, but that buying dissipated with all markets slightly lower to...

Other Oil Producers Join OPEC Agreement to Reduce Production

Oil markets today reacted to the latest production cutback agreement among OPEC and other oil-producing nations. The question remains whether OPEC’s plan w...

Boo; China Trumped; Euro Angst

After bouncing along flat to declining since Labor Day, the Dow has since taken off post-election and added nearly 8 percentage points. While Richard Madig...

Market Commentary

Trading volume was lethargic early today, but it improved significantly in the last hour of the session when prices started to rally. Accelerated buying in...

Continuing Resolution in Senate After House Passage

This is the day the federal government runs out of money. Yesterday the House passed a stopgap spending bill, which includes expanded funding for farm loan...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

As GOI has now decided to completely remove the import duty on wheat, prices have dropped slightly after moving up prior to the announcement.. With Ukraini...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

USDA Report and a Few Random Thoughts

While today's USDA December WASDE did not contain any significant changes to the bottom line of U.S. ending supplies, there were some adjustments to the wo...

Trump Ag Policy; Transition; State-Owned Market Economy

Japan has now joined the U.S. and likely the EU in refusing to accept Beijing’s interpretation of WTO requirements that China now be treated as a “market e...

A Fresh Look at U.S. Farms

Periodically, USDA’s Economic Research Service (ERS) compiles a report that profiles the U.S. farming sector. The most recent one, released earlier this we...

Red Meat Production and Trade; New EPA Administrator

While red meat production levels are staying at near-record to record levels going into the last month of the year, there has also been a notable change in...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Soybean and product prices pulled back in overnight trade. There were negative influences from declines for Dalian futures prices and Malaysian palm oil. M...

Oilseed Highlights

USDA recently released its annual long-term projections for major crops, and those for soybeans can be justifiably challenged for several reasons. USDA’s L...

Market Commentary

Soybean and grain prices were little changed in overnight trading even though Dalian meal and soyoil futures continued their upward trek. Trading was also...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Ukraine's grain production is projected to show an increase in 2016, but the problems that  traders have had transporting stocks to the seaports conti...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Slow Demand; Tricky Appointments; U.S.-EU; Dumping

Brussels is close to a free trade agreement with Tokyo, but the question is whether it will provide much of a boost to either economy. This is partly answe...

China In-Country Analysis

The average domestic corn price in China retreated even further in the first week of December, dropping RMB 11/MT ($1.60/MT) to RMB 1,689/MT ($245.50/...

Who Will Run a Trump Administration USDA?

President-elect Trump has not yet picked a nominee to lead USDA, which is likely to be producer-friendly. However, the list of potential names remains leng...

China’s Continuing Corn Conundrum

Chinese corn reserves were built up over many years as a result of government efforts to support domestic corn prices. It is now attempting various approac...

Oilseed Highlights

The  government  of Ukraine plans to boost its efforts to prevent local farmers from planting GM soybeans. While no such soybean varieties have b...

Creating a Trend; Trade and Tax Policy

With low prices now burdening growers, researchers are calculating what tweaks can be made to extract something additional from the market. However, there...

Market Commentary

In overnight trading, soybeans continued to build on Monday’s gains with fuel provided by higher prices for Dalian’s soymeal and oil as well as another sto...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

In light of recent action taken by Egypt's government regarding a certain tax together with the need to purchase feed ingredients, medicines, etc. from out...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Ukrainian corn is offered at $165/MT FOB for December-February, which is roughly in line with U.S. stocks on a CNF basis to the main destinations in the Me...

Market Commentary

Expanding concerns about hot, dry weather across parts of Argentina gave the soy complex new life Sunday evening after last week’s losses, and then a devel...

Commerce Department Reviewing Sugar Agreement with Mexico

With a renegotiation of NAFTA high on the incoming Trump administration’s agenda, a new Commerce Department investigation may tee up sugar as one of the fi...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Soybean Demand Not Slowing

The soybean analysis of last Friday (see Ag Perspectives, 2 December) discussed the role of emotion as a driver of the soy complex, but another factor is r...

Taiwan as Leverage; Bitter Spring with Mexico; Trump Gauge

The media initially accused Donald Trump of amateurism for talking to the Taiwanese president in violation of a 40-year-old protocol. It turns out, though,...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Brazilian farmers’ soybean sales have been significantly delayed this year due to a stronger real and weak CBOT. In the past few weeks, though, CBOT has be...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

While India’s gross domestic product (GDP) was at a high of 7.3 percent in the second quarter, it is likely to be negatively impacted in the third and four...

Market Commentary

Markets were mixed to slightly lower early in last night’s session, but they were trading steady to higher at the opening this morning. Corn traded higher...

Rearview Mirror Policy; Foreign Aid and Trade

A common flaw is for new farm policy to be drafted based on immediate past market experience, and that is particularly true for dairy. A key agriculture ad...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Not Much Can Stop the Soybean Market

If there has ever been a market that has begged  to be sold over the past year or two, it is soybeans. In fact, most participants did exactly that, an...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Campaign Promises and Reality

Although President-elect Trump often railed against the Dodd-Frank legislation as a candidate and promised to do away with it, a full repeal is not likely...

Market Commentary

Perhaps today’s market dynamics can best be described by the fact that Chicago and KC wheat futures prices posted yet more contract lows while soyoil contr...

Truth Revealed; Diverging Transatlantic Emissions

Pedro Marcilio of the Brazilian firm Participacoes SA admits that U.S. government funds have been used as production loans for Brazilian cotton farmers. No...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

Although Russian grain exports have been lagging behind last year's level, the November volume is expected to show notable growth versus the same month las...

China In-Country Analysis

Given certain developments regarding soymeal and soyoil in November, some stockpiling in the near term makes sense. Nonetheless, the massive turnover and s...

Election Impact on the Farm Bill

A Farm Foundation debate today on prospects for the next farm bill, post the election of Donald Trump, brought much enlightenment and a variety of opinions...

Market Commentary

Grain and soy complex markets traded mostly higher during the overnight session, helped along by the macro impact of the OPEC agreement to cut production a...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

More Beatings; China Retribution; Zombies

Mexico’s Finance Minister José Antonio Meade correctly warns that an overplayed effort to rewrite NAFTA would hurt the U.S. economy and not just his countr...

Natural Gas Overview

Warmer winter weather last year and to date this year is driving higher-than-normal natural gas storage inventories despite demand from the power sector, a...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

The Egyptian government forecasts local aquaculture production, which currently meets 80 percent of the country’s consumption demand, will increase 35 perc...

Gleanings from USDA’s Baseline Projections

Each year since 2000, USDA has produced baseline reports that project U.S. crop acreage and supply/demand balances for wheat, corn and soybeans for the 10...

Market Commentary

After trading higher for the last seven trading days, during which the January soybean contract jumped 70 cents higher, the market finally turned in overni...

Oilseed Highlights

The inability of farmers to use neonicotinoid insecticides along with poor weather in some areas resulted in EU rapeseed production falling 10.6 percent fr...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Perhaps Politics Should Be Watched Instead of Weather

It’s beginning to look like national elections around the world will be as important to the direction of the markets as weather forecasts. With several loo...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Wheat quality has been an issue in Argentina for many years, spanning the entire supply chain. One problem is that many farmers don't know the quality of t...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

January soybean futures soared to gains of 18-19 cents last night before collapsing and trading lower at 9:30 A.M. this morning. However, that weakness was...

Trade and Tax Policies Collision

Donald Trump complained about inequitable international tax systems during the campaign, and now congressional Republicans are entertaining a solution. How...

Strange Year in Politics

Surprise election outcomes in the U.S. and Europe as well as political chaos in South America have set the stage for potentially volatile foreign exchange...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

The Black Sea milling wheat market was again firm last week on slow farmer selling and exporters’ short covering. The pace of exports from Russia remains t...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Market Commentary

Soybean futures continued to set new highs for this postharvest on more evidence of no slowdown in export demand. However, it was a different story for cor...

More Things to Keep You Up at Night

While the expanding dryness that is starting to affect the 2017 U.S. hard red winter wheat production region has been covered in analysis here this week, t...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

Wholesale wheat prices in New Delhi, the country’s key market, surged to Rs.23,916/MT ($346/MT) on 18 November from Rs.18,858/MT ($281/MT) on 18 October. T...

Losers Pay; Message Received; Arbitrary Standards

The WTO has several problems, but an important one is its understaffed, overworked Appellate Board (AB). While two new judges have recently been appointed,...

EPA Announces Final Biofuel Volumes

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) today finalized the 2017 Required Volume Obligations (RVOs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) for over...

China; More China; Food Fallacies; Inequality

Senate Agriculture Committee Chairman Pat Roberts (R-Kansas) told Agri-Pulse to “Show me a nation that cannot feed itself, and I'll show you a nation in ch...

Market Commentary

The Pre-Thanksgiving futures market rally did take place, but it ws not in the way traders had imagined. The EPA surprised by announcing its final Renewabl...

China In-Country Analysis

After an extremely slow start to 2016 and a modest recovery in the spring, U.S. food and agricultural exports to China have recovered nicely as a result of...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Black Sea Regional Analysis

While oilseed prices in Russia showed growth on average in the past week, those in Ukraine exhibited a different pattern in both the domestic and export ma...

Soybean Market Exuberance

Yesterday’s soy complex market performance had many market watchers wondering what was going on. The clarity of hindsight suggests that the rally resulted...

Trump and Trade; China’s Designs; Climate Flip-Flops

Donald Trump says he will withdraw the U.S. from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on day one of his presidency and instead "negotiate fair, bilateral tr...

Market Commentary

It was once again a mostly green day of trading for grain and soy futures with soybeans and soymeal leading the way. The principal exceptions were soyoil a...

Middle East, Mediterranean and Africa Regional Analysis

Researchers in Kenya have said that planting GM maize could save up to $90 million annually in crop losses as well as lead to an additional production of 4...

Oilseed Highlights

A draft proposal submitted to the EU Commission recommends a 50 percent reduction in the use of biofuels in the transportation sector after 2020. This is b...

Economic Outlook

The supply of money held by the public has grown almost 47 percent since 2010 when compared with the size of the economy, and some estimates indicate that...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Mercosur Regional Analysis

Argentine soybeans started this week showing weaker basis. May shipment is offered at 20 SN with demand bidding at 15 SN, and June cargo is offered at +25...

Transition: USDA and World; Balkanized Agriculture

If many Americans barely understand why and what happened in the recent election, foreigners can be forgiven a similar challenge. International relations h...

Southeast Europe Regional Analysis

Demand for Ukrainian wheat is still present in India. One vessel loaded in Bulgaria last week is also apparently destined there, and Russia has asked India...

Market Commentary

Unusual strength in Sunday night trading gave way to a sharply higher trading session for the soy complex. U.S. exports are well above USDA projections, le...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Propane Outlook for the 2016/17 Winter Season

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has issued its Winter Fuel Outlook. It includes data regarding propane, the cost of which is a a major inp...

Southern Plains Turning Dry

Crop conditions across the U.S. have been so good that there simply hasn’t been any worry about moisture levels. Meanwhile, 2016 brought record U.S. winter...

Closing Futures Prices

Today's grain, oilseed, cattle and hog prices...

Indian Subcontinent Regional Analysis

India's recent move against  the country's old currency notes is having a profound effect on farmers who bring their produce to market as well as truc...

Do the Math

Analysts are already starting to consider the mix of U.S. planted acres for 2017. Those acreage projections will be used as the base for making next year''...

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